Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses.
Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics - why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract - this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history.
He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns.
Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides.
The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics. Statement of the Problem 1 1. Geopolitics 9 2. Collective Solidarity 29 3. The Metaethnic Frontier Theory 50 4. Ethnokinetics 94 6. The Demographic-Structural Theory 7. Have one to sell? Sell now - Have one to sell?
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The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics. Request this item to view in the Library's reading rooms using your library card. To learn more about how to request items watch this short online video. You can view this on the NLA website.
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Cite this Email this Add to favourites Print this page. You must be logged in to Tag Records. Feb 08, Daniel Lawson rated it it was amazing. If you are mathematically minded and interested in history, this is a must read. Turchin brings the ecological modeling methods to bear on this vital question: why do states rise and fall? He explores several models that explain this, applicable in different circumstances. Though the academic literature has moved on, this is an accessible way in for anyone studying a quantitative degree or above.
Oct 23, Daniel rated it really liked it. After 6 years working in CS departments, it was a joy to have the world view in a long form book. There are some interesting thoughts patterns and ideas but it's so hard to follow because every piece of evidence seems to confirm the theory. I couldn't tell the predictive power from the inevitable from the tautological.
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Other books in the series. Princeton Studies in Complexity 1 - 10 of 15 books. Books by Peter Turchin. Related Articles. The last five years of world history have been nothing if not When living in interesting times, there's nothing better for Read more Trivia About Historical Dynami No trivia or quizzes yet. Add some now ». Quotes from Historical Dynami Informal verbal models are adequate for generating predictions in cases where assumed mechanisms act in a linear and additive fashion as in trend extrapolation , but they can be very misleading when we deal with a system characterized by nonlinearities and lags.
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